How do recent political developments affect the case for Proportional Representation?Reflections on two elections

The UK and US elections in the second half of this year have probably encouraged and dismayed Compass North Devon members in equal measure. The eventual defenestration of the increasingly terrible Tory government here was followed in November by the sobering return of Donald Trump across the pond; in the light of these two results I believe that the role of Compass ND is now more important than ever.

When Keir Starmer walked in to Downing Street on 5trh of July, many were talking about him having a clear ten year mandate to repair and transform a "broken" country; less than six months later things are not looking so cut and dried. The fact that he got a stonking majority of 174 seats on 33.7% of the vote (and 20.139% of registered voters) under our current electoral system, should have sounded a cautionary note. Since the election, some avoidable missteps, combined with a very hostile press, have made the electoral horizon much less clear.

Trump's return to the White House next January, without any real constraints on him from Senate, House, or Supreme Court, is understandably very worrying for many in the USA; it may well be a symptom of the decline of the US as a superpower (much as I believe Brexit was a symptom as much as a cause of the UK's decline). My concern, however, is how the return of Trump affects us as a country, and what we can do about it.

The first issue is trade. Trump will almost certainly raise tarriffs; these will be primarily aimed at China, but also the E.U. It seems likely that the UK will be faced with the choice of chumming up with Trump's USA or seeking a closer relationship with our former friends in Europe. Some suggest that we can play one off against the other, but actually this is more likely to result in disaster and humiliation. Overall, the age of "globalisation" may be coming to an end, and that may not be such a bad thing

The second issue is Trump's likely involvement in UK politics. With the Tory party possibly now in terminal decline, and with the shine having (for the moment???) come off Keir Starmer, there is a real danger that in five years we could have a Reform government on 33% of the popular vote, much as we have had majority governments for Johnson and Starmer. The fact that Nigel Farage is being talked about as a "bridge to Trump" by Peter Mandelson, his connections with Elon Musk, the likely support of Tufton Street and people like the Heritage Foundation in the USA all give reasons to be nervous. I am a democrat, and much as I dislike what Reform stand for, if they gained power with more than 50% of the vote, or they could cobble together a coalition with the Tories, DUP, or whatever, I would accept it. What I would hate to see is a far-right government elected by a minority of voters, that might fillet our democracy much as Trump looks like doing in the USA.

So I believe we have to start pushing very hard for PR well before the next election. Starmer and the Labour Party leadership nixed this before the last election, but my guess is that they may be much more receptive now.

Undoubtedly we will need to properly re-engage with Europe; however, I think this really has to become clearly the "will of the people" rather than driven by "Remainers". PR is a much more immediate and vital objective. My guess is that the Trump administration will be chaotic, and this will both undermine Reform and put us closer to Europe. Let’s hope so!

Richard Toller,
November 2024

Letter to the Press:
More ‘quids’ than ‘pro quo’ I fear
By Richard Toller

Why is it impossible to get an NHS dentist’s appointment in North Devon, and why is it so expensive to go privately? Why has taking your pet to the vet’s surgery become financially terrifying? Are the people we all know and like in these businesses making a fortune? Well, no. There’s an - innocuous sounding - factor at work here called “Private Equity”; so how does it work? (Please bear with me; followers of Manchester United may recognise a pattern).

Imagine an independent business that is worth £10 and makes £1.50 profit per annum. Along comes a Private Equity “Investor” and buys the business for £11. They then go to a bank and borrow £10 at 10% a year, secured against the assets of the business, (re-pocketing the £10); loan interest will cost the business £1 per year. The “owners” are now making net 50p a year on their net investment of £1 – a 50% return. For every 1 percent the profits of the core business goes up, their return goes up by 10 percent. Private Equity Investors love (and are massively invested in) business sectors like vets, dentists, undertakers, and care homes – all where the customer has little bargaining power, so prices can be ramped up easily; staffing costs (wages) may even be reduced; any uneconomic local social responsibility is eliminated (no NHS appointments). If the business fails, the bank, the state or employee pensions will be there to pick up the pieces, as no profits or initial value will have been retained within the core business. This is what “efficiency” looks like in the modern, deregulated world.

It is this kind of “financial engineering” that has caused so many of the problems in the water industry, whether owned through private or public equity.

We get all misty eyed about the free market, imagining scenes from the Mayor of Casterbridge and Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” directing the widget maker for the general good. The old, generally benevolent form of free market has mutated into an often-malevolent offspring, mainly interested in extracting profits – the euphemism is “maximising shareholder value”. The invisible hand is now throttling our society and, literally, our planet, while the ideologues who make up much of today’s Conservative Party cheer it on.

It may not come as a great surprise that Private Equity “Investors” are among the largest financial backers of the Conservative Party, along with hedge funders, dead people (look it up!)  and an opaque Conservative Party membership open to people from anywhere in the world; this week an order has been quietly slipped through by the government, allowing political parties to increase election spending by 45%, favouring the Conservatives; (all this when there’s supposedly not enough money for vital services). This country used to pride itself on one person one vote; the main backers of the Conservative Party today want one dollar one vote, but they also want their “quid pro quo” – indeed, usually lots of “quids” in all our pockets!”

I have recently been feeling deep despair about the atrophy of our society, about the climate, and much else; this is quite the wrong approach. We must all start acting together from today to repair our social and economic fabric, and to ensure the world is liveable for those coming after us.

Firstly, the local Conservative MPs must go; there will be money behind them, and social media campaigns, and AI, but they must go; they put on a show of concern but are at heart enablers of our decline.

Then we need to fight for a society that is fair; we need fair government and a fair, properly regulated economy.  This will need deep constitutional reform, but there are plenty of ideas and proposals out there. I strongly recommend listening to Ben Ansell’s first 2023 Reith Lecture on “Our Democratic Future” on BBC Sounds.

Richard Toller,
Queens Nympton

Published in the North Devon Gazette, December 2023